Cook Partners

Aiming for Direct Sales Channels

Author Erynn Manugm interviews Rebekah Gomez, editor of NavPress' Th1nk Books imprint:

These times are challenging for all publishers, including NavPress. Retail publishing in general is declining. People aren’t buying or reading books as fervently as they once did. While the economy plays a part in this shift, the larger reason is a move toward electronic delivery of information ...

NavPress recognizes these trends and has made some changes. Over the last two years, NavPress has been shifting from a bookstore and trade-only focus to adding Internet and church development channels alongside the trade. This will help us move from a primarily trade-oriented publisher to a trade and direct publisher, strengthening our direct side of the business. What this means for authors is that their books can be sold into both channels, trade and direct, strengthening their visibility and effectiveness of their message.

Read more here.

Long Tails, Starving Legal Tails, Skinny Pirate's Tails

What impact does illegal file-sharing have on the results predicted by the long tail theory with regard to product sales? A Wired article reports,

“Consumers are ... driven to seek the same music in legal and illegal markets,” reads the report (.PDF), published Thursday by BigChampagne Media Measurement and music rights organization PRS for Music. “The most swapped files were also the most downloaded on legal music sites, indicating that what’s popular is popular.”

Though the report applies to music rather than books, publishers might anticipate similar sales curves as electronic books gain popularity.

USA: Portrait of the Book Buyer

A presentation by Bowker's Kelly Gallagher, whom many might know from his days with the Evangelical Christian Publishing Association and involvement in international training, is now on Slideshare. The presentation, one of several at the Making Information Pay event held earlier this year, paints a portrait of U.S. book-buyers. Facts shared on just one slide:

• 45% of Americans aged 13+ read books 
• 32% of readers are over the age of 55
• The average age of a book reader is 44
• 58% of readers are female

These figures apply to the U.S. and may be nothing like your market. Nevertheless, can you obtain similar statistics to paint a portrait of the book buyers in your area? If so, what does that portrait look like? If not, what can you do to get better information about the consumers you are trying to reach?

Serving the Recession Shopper

The Retail Bulletin reports on a survey whose results suggest "the emergence of a new kind of consumer - the Recession Shopper." That consumer is distinguished by the online research he or she performs prior to visiting a store:

92% of respondents have more confidence in online information than [in the] sales people in-store. Some 81% are doing online research 'most of the time' before buying a product and 78% say this is because TV advertising does not give them enough information to make an informed decision. There is a net decrease of 19% of those who expect to make high street purchases in the coming year, compared to an anticipated 22% net increase in online shoppers.

What implications does this have for Christian publishers and booksellers? Here are just a few:

• Your Web site, whether you own a publishing house or a store, needs to be current.
• If you are a publisher, look for ways to facilitate use of your Web content, providing data that your retail customers can easily aggregate to their own sites.
• Recession shoppers are "migrating their purchases online." Offer "Web-only" discounts or special offers to build loyalty and good will among these direct buyers.
• If you have a bricks-and-mortar store, consider providing an area where customers can engage in  online research on the products in your store.
• Ensure your store staff is aware of the information available on the Web regarding the products you carry.

US, UK Publishers To Sell More English-Language Titles in Foreign Markets

The Guardian notes:

Across the world, the appetite for English language books is booming and publishers struggling under the weight of the recession in their core markets of the US and UK are increasingly turning their sights overseas. ...

A combination of the recession, which has pared back consumer spending, and a longer-term demographic change brought about by a fall-off in population, is hitting book sales in the US and Britain. Both markets are still the largest for English language publishers, but growth has stalled.

The article highlights India and China as the markets with greatest potential for increasing sales of English titles overseas. The Guardian article focuses on the foreign branches of publishers such as HarperCollins, Penguin and Random House, but does not offer the perspectives of independent indigenous publishers. For an alternative view, consider Barine Kirimi's "Publishing Trends and Their Effect on Publishers in the Developing World," from Cook Partners magazine.

A Fat, Rather Than Long, Tail

Chris Anderson famously coined the concept of the long tail. Now, Ian Bremmer, author of The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investment, describes the fat tail:

Briefly, a fat tail is the "fatter" than expected tail end of a distribution of occurrences that are presumed to be random (and therefore thin). When major risk events happen with much greater frequency than expected (like, say the subprime crisis), you have a fat tail.

I believe that a combination of many factors--global energy coming increasingly from unstable parts of the world; emerging markets increasingly providing the engine for global economic growth; dangerous technologies becoming more diffuse and empowering rogue states and organizations; and the move away from a US-led unipolar global system without a related shift in global architecture increases the likelihood of politically-driven fat tails in the global economy today.

Applying the concept beyond politics, however, to book publishing, think about the fat tail. Look at  your orders. Are you treating the interest in certain books as random, when perhaps it indicates the tail is fatter than you thought? Maybe there is renewed interest in an old release. Maybe people are seeking your version of a classic because it is less expensive than others on the market. Check out the anomalies in your customers' orders. They might lead you to new directions and strategies to pursue.

Europe: Recession a Boon to Publishers?

Just days ago we noted that French book sales were up. Now, The New York Times observes that phenomenon is true in Germany as well:

[The] resilience [of book sales] has been particularly evident in Continental Europe. After a dip in the fall, the number of books sold in France rose 2 percent in December from a year earlier and 2.4 percent in January, according to Livres Hebdo, a trade publication.

The trend has been similar in Germany, where the number of books sold rose 2.3 percent in January, according to the Börsenverein des Deutschen Buchhandels, a trade organization. Analysts say many other European markets have also shown gains.

In the United States and Britain, book sales have been slightly less robust, falling by a fraction of 1 percent in both countries last year, according to Nielsen BookScan. Sales in the United States were down about 1 percent in the first 10 weeks of this year.

Still, given that many other industries are struggling with double-digit sales declines, even those numbers look pretty good.

Want Some Literature With That Lipstick?

Avon, a beauty products company that "markets to women in more than 100 countries through 5.4 million independent Avon Sales Representatives," can be a formidable outlet for books. Though the company's catalog carries mainly cosmetics, jewelry, and clothing, Avon also offers toys, books, videos, travel accessories and seasonal items.

 In Brazil, Christian publishers have found success with this distribution network. Publish News highlights an article in Valor Econômico, which reports:

In January, in a single month, Thomas Nelson Brasil sold 100,000 units of [two ] Max Lucado titles. "In the bookstores... since 2007, 34,000 units had been sold. Avon has already sold more than 320,000 units in a smaller time frame," affirms Carlo Carrenho, Thomas Nelson Brasil's publisher, who wound up the year passed with a total of one million units sold. Today, Avon represents 15 percent of the monthly invoicing of the publishing company in the country.

... One of the most prominent titles in Avon's catalog is Stormie O'Martian's The Power of a Praying Wife, [published in Portuguese] by Mundo Cristão. In the last 12 months, Avon ordered 275,000 units of this title. Currently, the cosmetic manufacturer is one of Mundo Cristão's main sales channels, accounting for 13.5 percent of its annual invoicing of R$ 12 million.

A Publisher's Sales Force: "Longitudinal, Deep, Expensive Expertise"

Cory Doctorow, writing "In Praise of the Sales Force," notes that

The best definition I've heard of "publishing" comes from my editor, Patrick Nielsen Hayden, who says, "publishing is making a work public." That is, identifying a work and an audience, and taking whatever steps are necessary to get the two together (you'll note that by this definition, Google is a fantastic publisher). Publishing is not printing, or marketing, or editorial, or copy-editing, or typesetting. It may comprise some or all of these things, but you could have the world's best-edited, most beautiful, well-bound book in the world, and without a strategy for getting it into the hands of readers, all it's good for is insulating the attic.

And, who is most effective in "making a work public?"

... a sales force. That is, a small army of motivated, personable, committed salespeople who are on a first-name basis with every single bookstore owner/buyer in the country, people who lay down a lot of shoe-leather as they slog from one shop to the next, clutching a case filled with advance reader copies, cover-flats, and catalogs.

... This matters. This is the kind of longitudinal, deep, expensive expertise that gets books onto shelves, into the minds of the clerks, onto the recommended tables at the front of the store. It's labor-intensive and highly specialized, and without it, your book's sales only come from people who've already heard of it (through word of mouth, advertising, a review, etc.) and who are either motivated enough to order it direct, or lucky enough to chance on a copy on a shelf at a store that ordered it based on reputation or sales literature alone, without any hand-holding or cajoling.

Pricing Strategies for Times of Crisis

What do you do about your book prices when there is an economic downturn? Outlook magazine offers a lengthy article on "How to Price Smarter in Uncertain Times," stating:

There are five key solutions that pricing decision makers can apply to keep profits growing during economic downturns. All are applicable to consumer-facing businesses; some have relevance for B2B companies as well.

What are the five solutions?

1. Understand the changing nature of demand
2. Fine-tune the product mix
3. Narrow the customer focus
4. Invest in value beyond price
5. Maintain pricing discipline and confidence. 

Read the entire article here.